隨機需求與變動前置時間下最適存貨管理策略之研究

An Optimal Inventory Strategy under Stochastic Demands and Variable Lead Time

本研究由變動前置時間及每日需求量為隨機變數之觀點出發，藉由電腦軟體模擬前置時間及需求量之資料進行適合度檢定 （K-S 檢定），找出其對應之機率分配，進而建構多變量之存貨管理模型，應用最佳化分析技術與數值積分方法，找出最適存貨決策變數之組合，以達到總期望存貨成本最小化之目標，再藉由所求出的最適再訂購點，找出最適之存貨服務率。

This research takes into account the variable lead time and stochasticdemand for inventory. First, we collected demand and lead time data totest their goodness of fit, then, based on the verified distributions of demandand lead time to build up a multi-variate inventory managementmodel. We applied the optimal technique and numerical calculationmethod to search for the optimal ordering quantity and reorder point toobtain the minimum total expected cost of inventory. Furthermore, accordingto the optimal reorder point, we found out the optimal service rateabout its corresponding inventory.