整合模型評估都市運輸供需分析之研究

A Study Evaluating the Urban Travel Supply and Demand Analysis with Combined Models

傳統旅運需求預測模型是藉由旅次發生、旅次分佈、運具選擇及交通量指派等階段，以循序的方式廣泛應用於都市運輸規劃問題。然而，此種方式無法在社經資訊不足的條件下進行未來旅運需求的預測。因此，近年來面對都市旅運需求預測的問題，整合各旅運決策階段的模型應運而生。本研究認為旅運者路徑選擇成本為各決策階段的成本組合，受到各決策階段成本的影響，最終反映在實體路網的路徑選擇行為。因此，應著重點於實體路網的流量狀態所反映的旅運時間及供需關係。本研究利用B 演算法結合變數產生器求解整合模型問題。數值測試的結果能充分展現都市運輸設施供需水準，以及都市生活圈與運作效率等資訊，對於提供未來都市運輸策略發展評估平台做出貢獻。

The traditional four-step model has been widely used in travel demandforecasting, considering trip generation, trip distribution, modal split andtraffic assignment sequentially in urban transportation planning. However,this approach is unable to obtain future travel demands under withoutsocio-economic information. Recently, this problem has been addressedby many researchers who have sought to develop combined models thatcan consider travelers’ choice on different stages simultaneously. Thisresearch considers the path cost as the sum of each step and the travelers’choice results can be affected by other cost procedures. However,practical applications should focus on physical network traffic flows status,and as reflected in travel demand and travel time. In order to solve theurban transportation plan problem, the “B” algorithm with a column gen- eration is adopted. Experimental results can demonstrate enough informationfor urban transport facilities supply and demand as well as the livingarea of policy development.