區域貿易協定對台灣的貿易效果──引力模型的實證分析

TRADE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS ON TAIWAN: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY USING GRAVITY MODEL

自1990年代初以來，台灣主要貿易國紛紛簽定區域貿易協定（RTA），台灣皆非會員國，此對台灣的貿易效果為何？是否會影響與台灣的貿易關係？先前研究大多只評估RTA的平均貿易效果，無法據以正確評估對台灣的效果。本研究為首次針對台灣與主要貿易國的貿易，建立一精簡的引力模型，並以1980-2008年21國的追蹤資料，時正探討主要貿易國所簽訂的五個RTAs對台灣的貿易效果。結果發現：NAFTA、EU及ANZCER對台灣皆有顯著進口轉向效果，其中NAFTA也有顯著出口轉向效果；AFTA及CEPA皆會增加自台灣進口及對台灣出口。以淨貿易效果而言，AFTA及CEPA會增進與台灣的貿易關係，NAFTA、EU及ANZCER則會減少與台灣的貿易關係。此外也發現，大多數RTAs自生效起即會對台灣產生貿易效果，各RTA不同會員國對台灣貿易效果也有明顯差異。依實證結果，台灣若能與美國及東協各國簽訂雙邊FTA，應有助於拓展對外貿易。

Since the early 1990s, the major trading partners of Taiwan consecutively signed Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). Taiwan, however, is not a member of those RTAs. What trade effects do those RTAs have on Taiwan? Do they affect trade relations of Taiwan with its trading partners? Most previous studies merely evaluate the average trade effects of RTAs, which cannot be applied to correctly assess the trade effects on Taiwan. This study is the first to construct a parsimonious gravity model, focusing on the trade between Taiwan and its trading partners, and uses panel data covering 21 countries from 1980 to 2008 to empirically investigate the trade effects on Taiwan of five RTAs signed between its trading partners. The major findings are summarized as follows: NAFTA, EU and ANZCER have significant import diversion effects on Taiwan, where NAFTA also exhibits an export diversioneffect. Incontrast, bothAFTA andCEPAhavepositiveeffectsonimportsfrom and exports to Taiwan. Regarding the net trade effects, both AFTA and CEPA can enhance trade relations with Taiwan, but NAFTA, EU and ANZCER do the opposite. Moreover, most RTAs are found to have significant trade effects on Taiwan since they went into force, and each member of all RTAs has different trade effects on Taiwan. According to the results, it should be helpful for expanding external trade if Taiwan could sign bilateral FTAs with the U.S.A. and ASEAN countries.