臺灣總體經濟變數對六都房價之影響分析

The Impact of Macroeconomics Variables on the House Prices of the Six Cities in Taiwan

本研究建構房價的理論模型，探討臺灣總體經濟變數對於六都區域房價的影響。研究結果發現：（1）不動產市場的直接外人投資，是屬於需求環節的投資，並無法帶動房屋供給的增加，反而是導致房價快速的上漲。（2）利率上升，對於房價的影響為負，表示房貸利率下降，民眾購房成本下降，導致房價上升。（3）營造工程物價指數對於房價的影響為正向，顯示供給面的因素也會造成房價變動。

This study constructs a theoretical model of housing prices to explore the impact of Taiwan's macroeconomic variables on house prices in the region. The results show that: (1) Foreign direct investment in the real estate market is an investment that belongs to the demand link and can not bring about an increase in housing supply. Rather, it leads to a rapid rise in house prices. (2) The rise in interest rates has a negative effect on house prices, which indicates that mortgage interest rates drop the cost of home buyers, and resulting in rising house prices. (3) Construction project price index has a positive impact on house prices, indicating that the supply side factors will also result in house price changes.