以馬可夫鍊細胞自動機模型模擬極端洪水對都市土地利用型態之影響：以台北市為例

Simulating Impact of Extreme Urban Flooding on Land Use Pattern in Taipei, Taiwan

都市洪災之研究為最近幾年重要的議題之一，既有針對都市洪災對土地利用的影響研究，對於淹水潛勢之考量多屬於半靜態之方式，無法確實掌握因氣候變遷而形成之極端洪水在土地利用在時間與空間上之動態變化情形。因此，本文嘗試建構以馬可夫鍊為基礎之細胞自動機空間動態模擬架構，並結合空間多準則評估模型，藉以深入了解在氣候變遷可能造成之極端淹水潛勢情況下，未來都市土地利用之型態變化為何。在台北市之實證研究中，本文建立之細胞自動機動態模擬架構在前期模擬部分具有可信的解釋效力，而在加入極端淹水潛勢之模擬結果顯示，在增高之淹水潛勢下都市發展將會呈現更為蔓延之情形，且原高淹水深度地區將逐漸轉作低人口密度之使用，未來，藉由漸進式的規劃模式，有助於因應淹水潛勢改變所造成土地利用之時空演變，進而確保未來公共設施與交通運輸能夠有效率配合新聚落的發展而達到理想情形。

Most research on urban floods in the last few decades focused on how land use changes alter urban flooding. However, studies that investigate how urban floods affects land use patterns are limited. Therefore, this work applies a novel spatial dynamic modeling approach, based on Markovian cellular automata (CA) and spatial multi-criterion evaluation (MCE), to evaluate the impact of urban floods on land use patterns. Extreme rainfall events caused by climate change are also considered in modeling processes. Taipei City, Taiwan, the study area, has experienced flood events that have caused severe damage in the last decade. A simulated land use scenario under an extreme flood in 2017 indicates that the future land use pattern under extreme flooding will have increased urban sprawl A large number of housing and commercial cells that were located in high-risk areas will gradually disappear and new urban cells will tend to locate outside city centers.