路口犯罪監視器設置策略之研究：以台中市水湳派出所管轄範圍為例

Building a Crime Intersection Monitoring System Using Novel Spatial Analysis Techniques: A Case Study of the Jurisdictional Region of the Shueinan Police Station, Taichung City

由於國內都市地區快速發展，導致都市內犯罪問題不斷升高，為了有效解決犯罪問題，人們提出許多有效的作法，如：警力增加、各項打擊犯罪專案實施、環境預防犯罪之設計及監視系統設置等。由於犯罪問題的複雜化與警察人力資源的有限，利用監視器預防及偵查犯罪已是許多國家採取的策略。然而國內各地對於犯罪監視器設置與規劃缺乏一套有效的分析策略，導致無法發揮犯罪監視器最大效益。因此本研究欲利用實證區內的地區道路系統、犯罪資料庫、犯罪環境熱點（hotspots）分析、地理統計（geostatistic）分析方法以及空間型構（space syntax）學等分析方式，發展一套路口犯罪監視器設置策略模式。因此本研究首先利用正規化後的刑案資料庫繪出刑案斑點圖，透過Voronoi diagrams分析法得到犯罪熱點，並檢視其犯罪地點與地區特徵上之關係。其後將分析成果利用指標克利金（indicator kriging, IK）之半變異元循序演算法建立出監視器站網之排序成果，做為犯罪路口監視器設置決策之依據，進而提供一個設置選址的可行模式。最後結合排序成果以及地區環境中易發生犯罪之特性，得出地區犯罪監控電子網絡圖，再以空間型構學將實證地區之路網結構加以分析。研究成果顯示，本研究結合監視器增站規劃策略之成果與犯罪監控電子網絡之成果後，檢視94及95年度犯罪案件可能被新設犯罪監控電子網路掌控的比例，大部分犯罪案件皆落在監控範圍內，監控比例約為75%與74%左右。而在未來發生犯罪時，警察單位可利用犯罪逃逸便捷路徑來掌握犯罪者可能之逃逸路徑，而在選擇監視器錄影資料可優先選取相關路段中犯罪監控電子網絡上之監視器畫面，以爭取破獲犯罪時間並增加其效率。最後本研究成果增加了路口犯罪監視器排列分布合理性及有效性，進而充分發揮監視系統在嚇阻犯罪、事證調查及刑案偵破上的功效特性。

To reduce street crime in metropolitan areas, several methods, such as adding police officers, developing urban crime-prevention projects, and urban crime- prevention plans, and placing monitors at each intersection have been proposed. Increasing the number of monitors has proven to be the most effective way to reduce urban crimes and maintain public safety. However, standardized strategic analysis for selecting the locations to install monitors in all cities is lacking. Thus, this work applies a novel and effective strategy for monitoring systems for crime- reduction planning. This work collected crime records of the Shueinan region from Police Bureau databases for 2005 and 2006, respectively. Three novel analytical methods were applied to develop a stagey of crime-prevention model. The analyzed process includes: 1. Creating a hot-spot map: this map was based on the crime distribution by the Voronoi diagrams method, and it showed the relationships between crime scenes. 2. Developing a spatial analysis strategy for setting intersection monitors: the geostatistic analytical method can determine the optimal distribution of intersection monitors. It is utilized the sequential semivariogram algorithm based on the indicator kriging (IK) method. This method can generate a map of all monitor positions as the system arrangement indicator. 3. Determining a novel crime-prevention strategy: at this stage, space syntax theory can be applied to building a novel crime-prevention strategy for an intersection monitoring system map. Sequential IK results and local crime environment characteristics are combined by space syntax analysis to obtain a crime supervision electronics network map, which can provide aids in identifying possible urban crime locations. On the other hand, validating the novel crime- supervision electronics network map between true crime records and estimate value of escaping routes based on crime database has high percentage estimate results (75% and 74%) of 2005 and 2006, respectively. Furthermore, police can use these analytical results to find possible escaping routes via the electronics network map. This method can reduce time for a monitoring time of crime escape routes via the crime intersection monitoring system. Finally, analytical results demonstrate that the monitoring system distribution map is effective, and that the monitoring system at street intersections can reduce crime rates and the duration of the crime investigation process.