台灣區域人口遷移及其與就業市場、住宅市場關係之實證研究

THE POPULATION MIGRATION IN TAIWAN, AND ITS CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP WITH LABOR MARKET AND HOUSING MARKET

本研究目的在探討就業市場、住宅市場發展與區域人口遷移的相互關係，首先利用政府相關統計資料，歸納整理台灣三大都會區的人口遷移型態及變遷趨勢。再進一步建構一個觀念性模型。利用民國63至88年的總體時間序列資料，選取台北市、台北縣、台中市、及高雄市四大都會型縣市為實證研究對象，以誤差修正模型（error correction model）進行實證估計。結果發現台北市、縣、台中市人口遷移與就業市場及住宅市場均存在長期穩定的共積關係，高雄市之人口遷移則呈穩態，與其他三市場間不存在長期穩定關係，同時四縣市的房價變動都受到政府支出的影響。在短期變動的因果關係方面，四縣市則呈現不同的關係型態。

The purpose of this research is to discuss the interrelationship between labor markets, housing markets, and interregional migration decisions in Taiwan. First, we construct a conceptual framework to explain the interactive relationships between labor market, housing market and interregional migration. Four most urbanized areas, Taipei City, Taipei County, Taichung City and Kaohsiung City are studied, covering the period 1974 － 1999, the error correction model is used to verify the causal relationship among the three markets. The empirical results verify that the stable long-term relationship exists among the three markets in the Taipei City, Taipei County and Taichung City. On the other hand, the short-term causal relationship exhibits different patterns in different city/county. It also finds that government spending affects housing price in all four cities/country which shows the capitalization effect of living environment.