應用模糊認知圖法分析都市發展系統關聯之初探

APPLYING FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPS TO ANALYZE URBAN DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM RELATIONSHIP

傳統都市發展分析模式因為缺乏部門間關聯整合以及過於複雜瑣碎，致在實務應用上遭到限制，亟待改善。本研究嘗試以模糊認知圖法進行都市發展系統關聯分析，作為未來發展實用且有效的分析模式之基礎。文章首先在前言說明研究動機、目的、文獻回顧與研究方法；繼而系統化地探討社會、經濟產業、財政、政策四個外生變數部門與都市規劃中土地使用、交通運輸與環境保育三個實質規劃部門中之變數內容、子系統內之相互關係以及各個子系統間之相互影響關係，建立一個考量部門相互關聯之系統關聯架構；接著說明如何利用模糊認知圖法，歸納規劃工作人員之專業意見，建立都市發展系統關聯模式，以作為都市規劃之分析工具，並提出實務操作的模式架構程序；最後以台北市為實例研究對象，進行分析模式之測試，初步發現以模糊認知圖法所建立之分析模式可以同時處理質性與量性變數，也可以完整地觀察整個都市系統中各變數之大致變化趨勢。

Most of the traditional urban development analysis models focus on one sector individually, from which the effects among different sectors are ignored. Such ignorance is harmful to the accuracy of forecasting. Therefore, this study utilizes Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) approach to simulate the complex system relationships of urban development. This paper starts with an introduction of study objective and method. Next, the relationship of urban system is constructed by physical and non-physical sectors. And then, a system relationship model is developed based on the FCM method. A case study on Taipei Metropolis is discussed to identify the application feasibility. There are two findings in the case study. One is that the FCM method can deal with qualitative variables and quantitative variables simultaneously. The other is that the effect of one sector to others and the effects of different policies would be comprehensively identified.