複雜與空間動態

COMPLEXITY AND SPATIAL DYNAMICS

新古典都市經濟對於個體空間選擇行為與都市整體空間結構形成之研究，多偏重在均衡分析，而缺乏空間動態程序之研究。尤其對於複雜之空間系統，均衡分析方法論難以解釋規模報酬遞增等因素所引發之混沌空間結構。因此本文主要之目的乃利用混沌與複雜系統理論，引用變異搜尋（Variety-seeking）模型結合動態Logit模型模擬都市之空間動態，結果顯示個體效用變異之程度、參數與起始條件，係影響空間成長是否呈現混沌或空間聚集經濟形成特性之主要關鍵：特別是規模報酬遞增形成之聚集效應，對於初始條件具有較敏感之波動現象，此現象符合Arthur所提之歷史事件閉鎖效應及Eaton & Eckstein所提之階層規模法則（Ranking-size rule）的都市成長特性。

Neo-classical economics are used to employ the equilibrium approach to explain the relations of individual spatial choice behavior and the formation of city spatial structure. However, their approaches lack of suitable spatial dynamics analysis tools. Equilibrium approach is difficult to explain the chaotic phenomena in the complex spatial structure where that is induced by increasing returns to scale. The purpose of this paper is to employ the chaos and complexity theory into urban spatial dynamics analysis. Further, we use the incorporated model of variety-seeking and dynamic Logit model to make a simulate analysis. The results of simulation reveal the facts that the main factors where decide the formation of chaos and agglomerations are individual utility variety and the model's coefficients and initial conditions. These results support the concepts that the lock-in effects of history events where Arthur(1989) has argued, and the rank-size rule of city growth where Eaton & Eckstein(1997) has afforded.