經濟－－能源－－環境系統之整合性規劃模型的建立與應用

AN INTEGRATED PLANNING MODEL FOR ECONOMICENERGY-ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM

經濟學主要在解決資源稀少性的問題，隨著資源有效配置理論與方法的演進，確為某些工業先進國家帶來了經濟富裕的成果。然而七十年代所興起之新的資源稀少性問題，顯已對多數先進國家人民福祉的持續增進形成威脅。諷刺的是，造成新的資源稀少問題之根源，亦正是創造經濟富裕社會所依賴之經濟與技術的進步。這些資源稀少性課題。包括(1)自然與人文環境的品質漸趨低落；(2)能源與非能源礦產之加速耗揭；(3)環境資源、能源與非能源性礦產之分配公平問題。上述問題之癥結，在於如何取得經濟發展與生活品質提昇之間的平衡。而此一問題之解決，實有賴發展一調和各方利益之規劃策略，以整合社會多元化之價值體系與目標，並尋求次系統間目標妥協之道。本文之目的，即在應用多目標決策方法，建立一互動之數學規劃模型，以掌握經濟－－能源－－環境系統間之衝突特性，並提供相關政策方案評選之工具。

Economics are evolved mainly based on the concern of the scarcity resources. Theories and measures regarding the efficient allocation of resources are derived accordingly which many economically affluent societies are at least partly benefit from it. However, during the seventies, new kinds of scarcity appear to affect the well-being of developed world. Ironically, these new scarcities result from the very economic and technological progress that underlies their affluence. First, there is the decline in the quality of the natural and built environment which brought about by the increasing production and consumption activities. Second is the increasing rate of depletion of energy and non-energy materials that has raised fears about the adequacy of materials to support future production and consumption. Further, there has been concern about the distributional consequences of these environmental and energy and non-energy materials scarcities. A key analytical problem relevant to these issues is the question of how to alleviate these scarcities while maintaining economic progress and quality of life. Such harmonizing planning strategies for diversified social systems require methods for the resolution of conflicts arising form the interdependence between various parts of the systems. An interactive MODM model is constructed in this study to provide an analytical tools to help resolve the conflict among policy objectives as well as identify feasible compromise among different policy options.