告別悲觀主義預言？試論臺灣人口老化危機的迷思與挑戰

Farewell to Pessimistic Prophecies? The Myths and Challenges of Population Ageing Crisis in Taiwan

過去數十年來全球人口持續老化，伴隨而來的是各種悲觀式預言。惟1990年代末西方學界興起批判該論述的風潮，認為這些隱憂其實都是對預測指標（人口推估、扶老比）與衝擊面（醫療保險、公共年金）的迷思。因此本文試圖擷取此觀點，審視對臺灣社會的適用性。主要研究發現：（1）由部分先進國家的經驗顯示，人口老化可能引發健保與年金的財務「問題」，但不必然會導致「危機」。人口老化不是問題，關鍵在於執政者的改革意願與能力；（2）面對我國在年金改革的困局與社會文化的差異，西方「樂觀」看待人口老化的論述，恐無法完全套用到臺灣社會。本文最後根據研究結果，提出相關政策建議。

Over the past few decades, global population ageing has led to various pessimistic prophecies. However, in the late 1990s, western scholars have argued that these worries are in fact myths of predictive indicators (population projection and old-age dependency ratio) and impact dimensions (health insurances and public pensions). This research examines this critique and its application in Taiwanese society. The main findings are: (1) The experiences of developed countries indicate that ageing populations may trigger health insurance and pension system “problems” but not necessarily “crises”; the key problem is not population ageing but policymakers' will and capacity for reform; (2) Facing Taiwan's pension reform dilemma and diverse socio-cultural backgrounds, the 'optimistic' view of the West may not be applicable to Taiwanese society. Finally, this paper provides policy recommendations based on the findings.