異性的或自己的年齡偏好何者更影響擇偶機會？擇偶網站都會區男女的模擬配對分析

Opposite Sex’ or Your Age Preference, Which Is More Important for Marriage Opportunity ? By a Two-sided Matching Simulation Using Urban Sample from Website

本文以擇偶網站都會區會員為樣本，以「相配區」模擬配對法，估算五種模擬情況下的男女各年齡者的「年齡被接受度」。研究結果顯示：（1）愈年長的男女愈能接受比自己年齡更小的異性，但是男性年齡下門檻調降的幅度遠大於女性。（2）男性的年齡偏好上門檻亦隨著自身年齡的增加而顯著調降，但女性則無此現象。（3）年輕女性的「年齡被接受度」遠大於年輕男性，男女的年齡被接受度在30歲時相同，之後隨年齡而下降的走勢幾乎一樣。換言之，擇偶時機（自己邁入正式擇偶的年齡）對男女的擇偶機會皆非常重要。（4）本文最重要的發現是，對於大齡男女而言，「自己放寬（對異性的）年齡偏好的上限或下限」並未能擴大其擇偶機會（年齡被接受度），只有「異性放寬（對擇偶者的）年齡偏好的上限」才能擴大其擇偶機會，但是此一因素並非操之在己。

Using urban area data from matching website in Taiwan, this study applies a two-sided matching (suitable pool) approach, simulates five models to estimate the “age acceptance rate” (the percentage of people of the opposite sex who would accept one’s age given one accepts their age), as age preference thresholds change . The main findings are: (1) The older a man / woman is, the higher possibility he / she can accept a mate younger than himself / herself. However, as they aging, men’ floor-age thresholds decrease faster than women do. (2) Men’ ceiling-age thresholds decrease as they aging, but women’ do not. (3) Although younger women’ age acceptance rate is higher than younger men’, both men have the same age acceptance rate on their 30 years old, and then have the same falling pattern as they aging. In other words, “mate selection timing” is an important issue for both men and women after 30 years old. (4) One of the important finding of this research is that, for elder men and women, neither broadening floor-age thresholds nor ceiling-age thresholds can increase their age acceptance rate (mating opportunity). Only when the opposite sex have been lowering down their floor-age thresholds, the age acceptance rate of elder men and women will significantly increase. However, this key factor is not controlled by themselves.