台灣中高齡離職者的勞動參與和再就業：對台汽與中石化的事件史分析

本文探討影響中高齡離職者勞動參與和再就業機會的因素，除了與一般求職者的模式做比較之外，並檢驗中高齡族群社會特質的影響。實証分析所使用的樣本是兩家曾經進行大規模資遣的事業單位－－台灣汽車客運公司和中國石油化學公司。我們先用多變項對數迴歸模型分析受訪者繼續留在勞動市場的可能性，然後利用事件史分析法分析續留者的失業期間。事件的發生是指當受訪者獲得再就業機會時。研究結果顯示，中高齡勞動者的平均事業期間明顯高於全國性的平均數。年齡、性別、教育和年資對於留在勞動市場的意願有顯著的影響。至於影響再就業機會的因素，台汽的例子卻顯示年齡不如性別、教育程度、家庭經濟需求、和居住地區。中高齡求職者過去的工作經歷並不能成為促進就業機會的資產。人力資本因素是決定持續勞動參與行為的重要考慮，但結構性因素則對再就業機會有顯著的影響。

This paper examines the determinants of probabilities of labor market participation and reemployment of middle to early-old-age displaced workers in Taiwan. The massive displacement of this particular age group has become severe over the past decade, but no studies have examined their reemployment chances and how they are decided. Our data were the questionnaire surveys conducted with former employees of the Taiwan Motor Transportation Company (TMT) and the China Petroleum Chemicals Company (CPC). Using logistic regression analysis, the authors found that gender, education, tenure, age, and previous positions have significant impact on decisions about staying in the labor markets. The results of a proportional hazard model analysis show that family economic needs and regions of residence are as important as gender and education in determining the unemployment duration of TMT workers. Our study shows that, while human capital factors decide whether displaced workers would withdraw from the formal labor market or not, structural factors determine how soon they find new jobs.