均值人與離散人的觀念巴貝塔：統計社會學的兩個概念基石

本文兼顧西方統計思想與現代社會發展的歷史脈絡，對中央趨勢與離散度這兩個統計社會學的核心概念進行知識社會學的考察。考察的起始點擺在代表中央趨勢一概念之「均數」的歷史社會學內涵。首先，以Quetelet所提出的均值人做為討論的起點，進而分析涂爾幹如何從均值人概念中發展出平均類型與集體類型二概念。之後，再以平均類型與韋伯的理念類型的概念進行比較討論。基本上，無論均數、平均類型或集體類型都是以社會具整體共識性之連帶凝聚為基本假設，而以具效應性的結「果」立場來描繪由資產社會衍生的「社會」完形圖像。至於理念類型，其所採取的策略則是以具主導歷史演進之因果能量的理念為軸線，從「因」的動能立場來經營社會圖像的建構。但是，它的有效性卻是必須透過具經驗意涵之平均類型來檢證才得以落實。最後，緊扣著當代大眾社會的特質，為平均類型與理念類型二概念進行歷史性的定位，並討論統計概念在未來社會中之意義妥當性的問題。

The aim of the paper is to provide a sociological analysis of two key statistical concepts, namely central tendency and dispersion. In doing so, the development of modern Western statistical thought as well as the historical context of societal development itself are taken into consideration. The paper begins by examining the notion of 'mean', particularly in reference to Quetelet's concept of the 'average man', which has been widely regarded as the most historically significant indicator representative of the concept of central tendency. The issue how Durkheim elaborates Quetelet's notion and further develops the concepts of 'average type' and 'collective type' still needs to be justified. Obviously the justification can not be legitimized without a comparison Weber's notion of the 'ideal type'. For the concepts of average man, average type and collective type, a notion of solidarity with a nature of collective consensus has to be assumed in a way that the resultant effects of a given phenomenon are stressed. Historically speaking, these ideas are derived from the Gestalt image of 'society' held in particular by the bourgeois class in 19th century Western European society. As to Weber's use of 'ideal type', he takes a rather different strategy in which an idealized historical momentum is taken as a causal force to promote the formation of societal image. Yet, the empirical validity of 'ideal type' is beyond reach if not combined with the examination of 'average type' as a resultant phenomenon. Finally, the notions of 'ideal type' and 'average type' are discussed with particular reference to the nature of postmodern mass society. This will provide a foundation to a re-evaluate the meaningfulness and adequacy of statistical concepts as tools to describe and explain future societal configurations.