人民幣國際化之推動與挑戰

The Promotion and Challenge of Renminbi Globalization

中國大陸為了推動人民幣國際化，在尚未具備貨幣國際化的前題要件，不足以因應開放資金自由進出對國內金融穩定之衝擊的情況下，採取了先開放經常帳下資金進出，後逐步開放資本帳，以及將人民幣與外幣之進出予以切割之非常規人民幣國際化推動策略。人民幣國際化在許多方面已有長足進展，目前正積極進行全面金融改革，為國內金融體系強化其對開放人民幣資本帳下可兌換之可能衝擊的因應能力。人民幣國際化也隱含不少風險與挑戰。中國大陸正爭取將資本項下可兌換之標準，修改為「有管理的」資本項下可兌換，以降低開放資金自由進出對國內金融穩定之威脅。此一努力若能成功，將可加速人民幣資本帳下可兌換及人民幣國際化之達成；否則人民幣國際化恐尚需相當時日。近兩年大陸的股市與匯市風波已使開放人民幣資本項下可兌換更趨審慎，以致延緩人民幣國際化之進程。

Knowing that China has not yet equipped the preconditions for currency globalization, China authorities adopted an irregular strategy to globalize Renminbi (RMB). The current account was unregulated first, then gradually followed by stepwise openings of capital account. Besides, the inflow/outflow of RMB and foreign currencies were liberalized separately, with the liberalization of RMB prior to foreign currencies. The RMB globalization has made massive advance in many aspects. Currently, China is actively reforming its financial system, in order to strengthen its ability to refrain from the impacts of capital-account convertibility on the domestic financial stability. The RMB globalization is imbedded with a lot of risks and challenges. China is now trying to modify the IMF’s standard of capital-account convertibility into a “manageable” one, so that the threat of free-flow of capital on the domestic financial stability can to be eased. If this attempt can succeed, China’s capital-account convertibility will be speeded up. Otherwise, the RMB globalization will take a longer time. The turmoils of stock market and foreign-exchange market in recent two years have also turned the China authorities more cautions on capital-account convertibility, and therefore deferred the progress of RMB globalization.