中國房地產泡沫化問題暨投資風險評估研究

Research on China's real estate bubble and investment risk assessment

房地產業是當前中國經濟發展中極具特色的產業。中國房地產業的發展，關係到相關產業的發展以及整個國民經濟的增長。構建起系統的中國房地產行業投資風險分析方法，並用該方法分析中國房地產行業的投資風險暨房地產泡沫問題，具有重大的理論和現實意義。本文以理論研究為指導，以實證研究為主；以定性分析為指導，以定量分析為重點。本文綜合運用房地產泡沫指標法、指數合成方法和經濟計量方法分析中國房地產行業投資風險問題，得出的初步結論為：就全國而言，當前並未出現房地產泡沫現象，當前中國房地產行業投資風險可控；但該行業存在著許多亟待解決的問題。

The real estate industry is exceedingly characteristic in China economic development. The development of real estate industry is in connection with the development of other correlative industry and the increase of national economy as a whole. So it is theoretically important and realistically significant to construct systematically risk analysis method for Chinese real estate industry and to use this method to recognize bubbles that exist in real estate industry of China. We mainly use empirical approach while taking theoretical research as guidance, and emphasis is put on quantitative method guided by qualitative analysis. We analyze the investment risk of real estate industry by synthetically applying the index of real estate bubbles, approach of indices composition algorithm, and econometric approach. The conclusion drawn from this paper is as follows. As far as the whole country is concerned, there is no bubble in the real estate industry of China and investment risk is still under control at present. But, there are a lot of problems that should be settled down.