飛機失事與股票市場之反應——中華航空之案例

Aviation Incidents and Stock Market Reactions: An Empirical Study of China Airlines in Taiwan

儘管中華航空公司去二十年中，曾經過多起重大空安意外事件，但是華航的營運績效仍然良好，股價表現也不遜大盤指數。本文採用事件研究法探討多次重大空安意外與股價表現之關係後，我們發現華航股價在空安意外後會急速下跌，然而乘客是很健忘的，在意外發生四個月後，股價都會回到正常的股價水準。當華航出現重大空安意外時，客戶會轉向搭乘主要競爭對手（長榮航空公司）的航班，出現所謂的移轉效應，導致競爭對手的股價上漲。但是在台灣並沒有其他交通工具可以取代飛機，因此，華航的空安意外對其他交通類股的股價並不會造成影響。

Despite several fatal aviation incidents over the past twenty years, China Airlines has maintained good stock market performance; its stock price has a better return than the Taiwanese weighted average index. This paper adopts an event study methodology to examine the relationship between multiple aviation disasters or incidents and stock market reactions. It has been determined that although stock prices decline sharply during event windows, prices always rebounded to the typical levels within four months post-incident. There is however a noticeable switchover effect among competing airlines after air incidents. However, evidence was not found to support spillover effects to the marine, land or rail-based transportation industry in Taiwan.