新北市毒品危害防制中心對戒癮更生人的追蹤輔導成效

Counseling Effect on Released Drug Offenders in the Drug Abuse Prevention Center of the New Taipei City Government

目的：估計毒危中心成立後，戒癮更生人在出監所後的聯繫上本人比例，分析其影響因子，並比較有沒有聯繫上本人之再犯率，評估追蹤輔導的成效。方法：對新北市毒危中心2010-2011年列管的戒癮更生人，與2010-2012年5月間追蹤輔導記錄、警方查獲持有或使用毒品者的紀錄（限新北市）及法務部入獄服刑資料（全國）作連結。共收集7,461（98.0％）人次，以SAS 9.3進行分析。失聯是以卡方檢定及邏輯斯迴歸作單變量及多變量分析；再犯是以Log-rank test及Cox’s proportional hazards model作單變量及多變量分析。結果：出監所後2年半內有聯繫上本人的比例為46.2％（95％CI=45.1％-47.3％）。2年半的再犯率為30.4 ％（95％CI=29.4％-31.4％）。有聯繫上本人的再犯率（27.8％）低於沒有聯繫上本人（32.6％），調整年齡、性別及出監類別，有聯繫上本人的再犯風險比為沒有聯繫上本人的0.67倍（95％CI=0.61- 0.72）。隨著聯繫上本人或非本人次數增加，再犯風險下降。結論：有聯繫上本人的再犯風險顯著低於沒有聯繫上本人，追蹤輔導具成效。

Purposes: To determine the factors related to lost follow-up among released drug offenders after the local Drug Abuse Prevention Center (DAPC) became available. To evaluate the effect of DAPC counseling, the recidivism rates were compared between released drug offenders who were and who were not able to be contacted by the DAPC. Methods: The records of the released drug offenders between 2010 and 2011 from the DAPC in New Taipei City were linked to the records of arrested (New Taipei City only) and imprisoned (nationwide) between 2010 to May 2012. A total of 7461 (98.0%) observations is used for this study. SAS 9.3 was used to perform the statistical analysis. A chi-square test (univariate) and logistic regression (multivariate) were used to analyze lost follow-up (an outcome variable). A log-rank test and the Cox proportional hazard model was used for recidivism (an outcome variable). Results: The contact rate for offenders within 2.5 years after release was 46.2% (95%CI=45.1%-47.3%). The recidivism rate 2.5 years after release was 30.4% (95%CI=29.4%-31.4%). The recidivism rate was significantly lower for an offender who was able to be contacted (27.8%) than for an offender who could not be contacted (32.6%). The hazard ratio of recidivism was 0.67 (95%CI=0.61-0.72) for an offender who was able to be contacted when compared to an offender who was not able to be contacted. Moreover, the hazard ratio of recidivism decreased as the number of contacts with the offenders increased. Similarly, the hazard ratio of recidivism decreased as the number of contacts increased. Conclusions: There was a significantly lower hazard ratio for recidivism among a released offender who was able to be contacted than a released offender who was not able to be contacted, indicating a beneficial effect of the follow-up counseling service by the DAPC.