中國的國際戰略與一帶一路的形成

Chinese international strategy and The Belt and Road

中國有關「一帶一路」的形成並非即興之作，必須考慮執行上的可行性，在深思孰慮的過程，是無法脫離國際趨勢分析，也就是對於國際環境認知的判斷，大陸學者文揚將「一帶一路」定義為「基於發展主義的，中國主導的世界體系。」既然一帶一路是中國面向國際體系所提出的願景，那一帶一路又如何透過國際環境的理解，認知這個規劃與行動是可行的呢？其實，一帶一路是從中國的「北方外交戰略」，以及「南方外交戰」擴展而來。北方外交戰略是以大國推動，並以安全為主要思考而出現，例如上海合作組織與六方會談，是中國推動北方外交戰略的主軸。南方外交戰略則是以經濟的思考為優先，包括博鰲亞洲論壇、中非合作論壇等。本文就是以中國的北方外交戰略、南方外交戰略為主軸，分析中國建構一帶一路的地緣政治與經濟戰略意涵，讓中國推動的一帶一路政經戰略，有一個比較完整的解釋。

The Belt and Road is not a short term goal, we need to take into consideration of the possibility of implement. It is impossible to avoid the international trend analysis, which contains international environmental sense of judgment. In fact, the Belt and Road is an extension that comes from China's ＂strategic diplomacy Northern＂ and ＂Southern diplomatic war.＂ Northern diplomatic strategy is based on own country, and security of country is priority. For example, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the six-party talks are the main axle that China extended north of diplomacy. Southern diplomatic strategy is based on economy including the Boao Forum for Asia, China-Africa Cooperation Forum. This article is based on China's northern diplomatic strategy and southern diplomatic strategy, analyzes China Construction geopolitical and economic implications of the strategy, has a more complete explanation that China promotes the Belt and Road.