房地產價格與生育行為之相關性研究：台灣實證資料之檢視

The Association between Real Estate Price and Fertility Behavior: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

本研究嘗試著探討房地產價格的變動與生育行為的相關性，並以我國的十九個地方縣市，時間從2002年到2013年的樣本觀察數來作為實證研究的對象。在控制了其他變項，諸如：結婚率、失業率、女性教育程度、女性勞動參與率、自有住宅率、以及龍、虎年效應以後，本論文採用房價所得比來作為對生育率的主要影響自變項，並以固定效果的迴歸模型來進行實證分析。本研究的結果顯示，我國的房地產價格上漲與生育率呈現出正相關的關係，推論其可能的解釋為與我國高度的自有住宅比例有關，房價的上揚帶動了財富效果讓人民更積極地去進行生育行為。

This research attempts to investigate the association between real estate price and fertility behavior. We use sample observations from 19 local jurisdictional areas in Taiwan, with time spanning from 2002 to 2013 to conduct empirical study. After controlling variables such as wedding rate, unemployment rate, female education, female labor participation, self-owned housing ratio, and dragon & tiger year effect, this paper explores the relationship between variable of Housing Price-Income-Ratio, i.e. index to measure housing price, and birth rate. Our empirical results reveal that real estate price is positively associated with birth rate in Taiwan. The result may be due to high degree of self-owned housing in Taiwan. The high-rising housing price increases 'wealth effect' which prompt people to give birth more actively.