引用回溯調查資料論述臺灣地區住宅首購之動態現象

THE DYNAMICS OF FIRST TIME HOUSING BUYING IN TAIWAN USING RETROSPECTIVE DATA

有關住宅權屬選擇之研究對住宅產品設計有其一定的助益。而目前相關研究多以橫斷面資料進行靜態分析。本研究嘗試從動態選擇之角度切入，並引用華人家庭動態資料庫（Panel Study of Family Dynamics，簡稱PSFD）所調查之回溯資料(retrospective data)進行家戶首次購屋之探討。本研究將首次購屋影響因素分為生命歷程之重要事件、住宅市場經濟因素、個人與配偶社會經濟屬性等四大類。研究方法採用Cox比例危險模型(Cox proportional hazard model)，由動態的觀點分析個人於住宅生涯中首次購屋之影響因素。本研究實證結果顯示在生命歷程重要事件與住宅市場經濟因素方面，貸款利率對首次購屋機率有負向影響效果。而在性別差異方面，男性結婚後的購屋機率為結婚前之1.76 倍；女性則為1.96 倍。在個人及配偶社會經濟屬性方面，本研究發現在男性與女性模型之參數校估結果有明顯的差異。由男性模型顯示，男性受訪者住宅生涯首次購屋主要受本身經濟條件及原生家庭之社會經濟屬性所影響，而其女性配偶之社會經濟屬性，對男性之住宅購置決策的影響力並不大。而由女性模型顯示，女性受訪者之住宅生涯首次購屋，受男性配偶社會經濟屬性因素的影響甚為明顯。因此本研究認為對台灣地區已婚家戶首次購屋而言，男性之社會經濟屬性之影響力高於女性。且女性在其住宅生涯之首次購屋，主要亦受其男性配偶社會經濟屬性所影響。

Studying housing tenure choice is one of the important issues to help on our understandings of household behaviors and also help on housing design. Previous studies discussed this issue under a static scheme, and hence ignored (or strongly simplified) the fact of dynamic effects of housing decisions over time periods. In this study, we applied a Cox proportional hazard model to analyze the housing decision of first-time home buying under the dynamic perspective. We sampled data from Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD), which is surveyed under a retrospective approach in 1999 and 2000. Major factors that we’ve concluded from this study to affect the housing decision include life course events, housing market conditions and social-economic characteristics. Empirical results indicated that mortgage interest rate has significantly negative effect on buying a house, which suggests that increases in a higher mortgage interest rate yield a more difficult in housing affordability. We also find the married people are significantly to have higher probability of buying than unmarried people. More specifically, the buying probability for married male is 1.84 times higher than unmarried male and 2.58 times higher for female. Further more, we found that the male model has significant differences in coefficients from female model. In male model, the main factors are him-self and parent’s social-economic characteristics; however, spouse’s effects are much lower. In female model, the main factors are spouse’s (the male’s) social-economic characteristics.