臺灣上市（櫃）公司投資決策之建構

Construction of Investment Strategies of Listed and OTC Companies in Taiwan

本研究採用2004年至2006年台灣地區股市全體上市櫃公司公開財務報表中重要的財務指標為變數，使用因素分析、群集分析、變異數分析等統計方法，建構最適投資模型的組合，並為投資人選擇投資標的個股時做為參考建議。實證結果顯示：一、全體上市櫃公司依財務比率可分為三個群組，而此三個群組的「獲利能力」、「償債能力」、「資產經營管理能力」、「長期資金運用效益」四個因素具有顯著差異。二、電子業IC設計產業可區分為二個群組，而此二個群組的「報酬能力」及「償債能力」二個因素具有顯著差異。三、從上述二個模型中，可觀察出全體公司及IC設計產業分群出來的公司更能表現出群體的差異性，探討其原因是在不同產業裡，其「報酬能力」、「獲利能力」、「償債能力」、「資產經營管理能力」、「長期資金運用效益」都不盡相同，產業需求面及供應面將會決定產業的發展前景及獲利水準，因此若將台灣股市全體上市（櫃）公司全都放入一起探討，不易顯現出最適投資模型的價值。

In this research, the variables are the important financial indices of the whole Taiwan’s listed and OTC companies financial reports from 2004 to 2006. This research applies factor analysis, cluster analysis and analysis of variance to construct the combinations of the optimal investment models. The empirical results prove First, the whole listed and OTC companies can be divided into three clusters, and ”benefit ability,” ”ability of paying debt,” ”asset's management,” ”efficiency of long-term fund” these four factors are significantly different in these three clusters. Second, IC design industry can be divided into two clusters, ”reward ability” and ”ability of paying debt” these two factors are significantly different in these two clusters. Third, in the above-mentioned two models, it proves that the whole listed and OTC companies and the companies which are clustered by IC design industry much can behave their differences. The reason to explore is that, ”reward ability,” ”benefit ability,” ”ability of paying debt,” ”asset's management,” ”efficiency of long-term fund” are not all the same in different industries. The supply and demand of the industries will decide their development foreground and benefit level. Therefore, to explore the whole Taiwan's listed and OTC companies will not easily show the value of the optimal investment models.