貧窮家計的陷入與跳脫－－以臺南市南區2001~2007年為例

Discussion of the Legal Poor Factor-Take South District of Tainan as an Example

本文以台南市南區自2001-2007年之法定貧窮戶為研究對象，分別探討法定貧窮戶在家戶與戶長個人上之靜態貧窮、持續貧窮、跳脫貧窮、以及跳脫貧窮後再進入的風險率分析。迴歸方法以Cox比例風險模型來預測脫離貧窮的風險率，並以生命表法估算出中位貧窮年數為2.38年。研究發現落入貧窮在戶長的風險比例模型上，以戶長年齡、教育年數、健康狀態與有無工作最為顯著。亦即戶長年齡越高、受教育年數愈多，健康狀態較佳及戶長有工作者之法定貧窮戶較容易跳脫貧窮。而在家戶的風險比例模型上則以家戶有身心障礙人口為最顯著因子，如法定貧窮戶之家戶中有身心障礙人口時，則要跳脫貧窮是有顯著的困難。因此在社會福利政策的議程上，建議政府對於法定貧窮戶能多方面的創造工作機會與就業輔導，以此增加就業機會，進而提高法定貧窮戶所得而脫離貧窮。並針對有身心障礙人口的法定貧窮戶能多以社會津貼補助。

This article is based on the statutory poor study of objects in the Southern District of Tainan City since 2001-2007; it is a discussion on the analysis of statutory poverty households respectively for families and head of the household in persistent poverty, sustained poverty, out of poverty, as well as the risk rate (hazard ratio). The Cox proportional hazard model is assumption that can predict the risk of poverty, and the life table method is allowed to estimate that the medium years in the poor are 2.38. The study found that the poverty get on the risk model of head of the household, especially on age, education, health status and occupation. That is, if head of the household is older, has more education, better health status, or a job, he would get out of statutory poverty easily. However, the risk model of families is remarkable for physical disabilities, so it is more difficult to be far away from the poverty if there is a member of family in this way. So in the social welfare policy agenda, it would be recommended that the official Government should create more opportunities and guidance of occupation for the statutory poverty households for increasing employment opportunities and raising their incomes to get out of poverty, so as to offer more social allowance for the statutory poverty households of physical disabilities.