俄國兼併克里米亞的國際政治及意涵

Russia's Annexation of Crimea: It's International Politics and Implications

本文首先分析俄國在2013年2-3月間兼併烏克蘭克里米亞自治區的策略及過程。特別強調，俄國如何利用烏克蘭內部族群政治衝突及派系權力鬥爭，暗用俄軍向克里米亞施壓，完成以「人民自決公投」手法的俄克合併。本文接著從現實派國際政治理論角度，評估西方美歐國家的政策及績效。最後，本文分析中國對俄克合併的曖昧態度，以及此合併事件對台灣可能的啟示。

The analysis focuses first on the strategy and process of Russia's annexation of Crimea, Ukraine in February - March, 3013, with special emphasis on how Russia exploited Ukraine's internal ethnic political conflicts and factional power struggles, and how Russia applied subtle military pressure to engineer the ultimate merger of Crimea with Russia through ＂people's self-determination referendum.＂ The analysis then evaluates, via the realist theory of international politics, the strategy and its effectiveness taken by the Western powers of the United States and the European Union. Finally, the article examines the highly ambiguous position taken by China on the annexation and a possible lesson that Taiwan may learn from the Crimea crisis.