南投市人口成長之研究（民國39年～99年）

A Study on the Population Growth of Nantou City(1950~2010)

本研究以民國39年建縣至民國99年止，共六十一年的時間，討論南投市人口成長的變化，並分析影響人口成長的因素。主要利用南投市戶政事務所提供資料為依據，以每十年當作一時間斷限，並以里為最小分析單位進行SPSS統計、GIS繪圖。研究發現：全南投市人口成長在前期大致維持正成長，但民國90年代漸轉為負值。本區人口成長受社會增減的影響程度越來越大，民國90年代受社會增減影響達80％。各里的變化從『人口緩增型』變化為『人口減少型』。南投市市區七里的人口所佔百分比減少（21.53％降至7.06％）。東山里、鳳山里、福山里各時期皆呈現衰退現象，主因地形崎嶇、交通欠便，故人口成長及人口分布較弱。人口變遷的原因則受到『中興新村設置』、『南崗工業區設置』、『交通軸線』、『主要商街』等因素的影響。經由分析中興新村及南崗工業區的設置均有助於人口成長。從『交通軸線』分析，可得知南投市人口分布往北方向延伸；另外經由SPSS分析，南投市主要商街的人口分佈符合Colin Clark的負指數模型。The study aims to explore the population growth in Nantou City during the past 61 years (1950 – 2010) . It also analyzes the essential factors which the change of demography. Based on the data of Nantou City Household Registration Office, the author conducts the research of the change of each village for ten years through the analysis of SPSS and GIS . Every village is used the smallest unit for this study. The results show that the population kept the positive growth in the early period, but it became negative growth during 2001~2010. The population growth was influenced gradually by the social factors and the effects even ascended to 80% during 2001~2010. The population growth changed from 'population sustained increase' to 'population reduction' in most villages. Futhermore, the percentage of the population descended from 21.53% to 7.06% in seven villages of Nantou City core. Because of bad landforms and inconvenient traffic, the analysis of this study reveals the recession in Dongshan village and Fengshan village as well as Fushan village. This is the reason why these villages had less demographic growth and distribution . The factors that have influenced the demographic change include the establishment of Zhongxing New Village, the set-up Nangang Industry Park, the axis of traffic and the commercial area. The analysis of this study indicates that establishment of Zhongxing New Village and Nangang Industry Park facilitates the population growth. Through the analysis of traffic axis, the population distribution in Nantou City extended to the Northern part of this city. While, with the process SPSS, the population distribution in the commercial area of Nantou City is in accord with the negative exponential model by Colin Clark.