日本「安倍三箭」的「虛」、「實」及真正的風險

The Effects and the Risk of the Three “Arrows” of Abenomics

日本安倍內閣提出大膽的金融政策、靈活的財政政策、促進民間投資的成長戰略這三枝箭（簡稱安倍三箭），來提振日本經濟的成長力道。本文除檢討「安倍三箭」到目前為止發揮的作用之外，也將運用經濟學賽局理論來說明，「安倍三箭」為什麼能發揮作用，以及可能遭遇什麼樣的挑戰與風險。本文認為，在目前市場和日本民眾的關注焦點已從金融面轉向結構改革層面的情況下，安倍內閣只有儘速將第三支箭－－成長戰略－－從虛態轉為實態，讓更多人享受改革的利益，才能鞏固好不容易形成的通貨膨脹預期，並借由提振總需求將日本經濟真正拉出長期通縮的惡性循環。

Abenomics refers to the economic polices advocated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan in order to revive the Japanese economy. Abenomics has three “arrows”: (i) aggressive monetary policy, (ii) expansionary fiscal policy with a longer term for fiscal consolidation, and (iii) growth strategy. In this paper we will explain these three aspects of Abenomics and their early impact on the Japanese economy. Also, we will apply game theory to demonstrate how they can help revive and sustain Japan’s economic growth, and discuss what kind of challenges and risks the Japanese government will be facing if it cannot launch the third “arrow” quickly enough, before people in Japan start to feel disappointed and indifferent toward Abenomics.