歐美跨區域經濟整合之影響評估

Impact Assessment on the Cross-regional Ecnomic Integration between EU and USA

近年來歐洲陷於債務危機、美國經濟成長不穩定以及中國大陸在全球貿易舞台快速崛起，促成歐盟與美國於2013年7月啟動「跨大西洋貿易與投資夥伴」（TTIP）談判。由於本談判格外注重貿易與投資的非關稅障礙議題，既有法規與標準的調和比起降稅更有整合空間，故TTIP先天上必須是一項高品質、高廣度的FTA。考量到歐美經濟的重要性，TTIP談判結果可能奠定全球規則，其他國家有龐大的誘因與壓力接受TTIP共通的標準，降低歐美與亞太國家發展自由貿易關係的難度。本文以顯示性比較利益分析臺灣對歐美出口主力產品，發現除了臺歐的機械產品在美國市場有多項可能存在高度競爭外，歐美雙邊貿易與臺灣出口結構有明顯區隔，短期負面衝擊有限，惟長期而言，高品質的TTIP可能取代韓歐、美歐FTA成為臺灣尋求與歐美經濟整合的藍本，關注談判進程與內容之餘，還要趁早做好自由化、市場開放與法規鬆綁的準備。

In recent years, because of Eurozone crisis, instable economy growth in the U.S., and the rising China on the global trading platform, European Union and United States have been stimulated to launch the negotiation on Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). This negotiation is more concerned with non-tariff issues about trade and investment, so there is more space to integrate in harmonization of existed regulations and standard than to lower down the tariff rates, and TTIP is doomed to be a high-quality and comprehensive FTA. Concerning the economically importance of EU and USA, the result of TTIP negotiation may set the rule of the global trading. This would cause other countries would be faced with incentives and pressures to accept the common standard associated with TTIP, and lower down the difficulty for EU and USA to develop free trading relationship with Asian-Pacific countries. This article implied Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) to analyze the main competitive goods among Taiwan, EU, and USA, and found out that except for some machinery and mechanical appliances between Taiwan and EU may highly have intensive competence in the USA market, there is conspicuous segmentation in the bilateral trading between EU and USA against Taiwan's exporting goods; therefore, the short-term negative impact may be moderate. But in the long run, the high-quality TTIP may replace the Korea-EU FTA and Korea-USA FTA to be the blueprint for Taiwan to seek economic integration with EU or USA. In conclusion, besides paying close attention to the process and content about TTIP, preparing how to deal with liberalization, market opening and deregulation in advance is more important.