國際氣候變遷調適策略經濟評估方法之趨勢與啟示

Evaluation Methods of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

進行國家氣候變遷調適策略的成本效益分析，有助於協助各部會整合資源、支援決策者對資源進行有效的配置，優先執行效益高於成本的調適策略，進而提升健全國家調適能力，降低社會脆弱度，以面對未來氣候變遷可能造成的負面影響。我國屬於亞熱帶海島國家，受到氣候變遷衝擊影響程度相對較高，應及早推動氣候變遷調適策略的成本效益評估。因此，本文首先蒐集聯合國氣候變遷公約（UNFCCC）等國際組織的四大研究群相關研究，歸納國際氣候變遷調適策略的經濟影響評估之發展趨勢；其次，探討調適策略成本效益分析評估方法，並優缺點比較；再者，利用芬蘭「評估調適政策進展指標」，檢討我國政策及相關研究進展，最後，根據前述分析結論，歸納政策建議。

Conducting cost-benefit analysis of a country’s climate change adaptation strategies can help government departments integrate resources and enable policy makers to allocate resources efficiently by prioritizing the execution of strategies with higher benefit than cost. This can raise a country’s adaptation capacity and reduce its social vulnerability, so that it is better equipped to cope with the negative effects that may be caused by climate change in the future. As a subtropical island nation, Taiwan is more substantially affected by the impact of climate change, and therefore needs to act early in conducting cost-benefit analysis of climate change adaptation strategy. This study first collects related findings from research groups in four international bodies, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and identifies the main international development trends in economic impact analysis of climate change adaptation strategies. The study then examines methods of conducting cost-benefit analysis for adaptation strategy, comparing their strengths and weaknesses, and uses Finland’s adaptation policy progress assessment indicators to review Taiwan’s progress in policy and related research. The final part of the study presents conclusions and policy recommendation drawn from the foregoing analysis.