我國消費者信心指數與民間消費支出之研究

A Study on Taiwan’s Consumer Confidence Index and Private Consumption Expenditure

國外許多國家早已廣泛應用消費者信心指數，做為預測短期經濟變化的指標；而國內有關消費者信心指數與民間消費支出之研究，則付諸闕如。本研究除研析先進國家消費者信心指標的建置，及其與總體經濟活動關係與應用外，亦藉由實證分析探討我國消費者信心指數是否具短期預測民間消費支出的能力。本研究實證結果與建議：一、受限於我國消費者信心指數時間數列不長，現階段我國以消費者信心指數預測未來消費支出，能力似屬有限。二、參考國外經驗，建議未來國內累積足夠統計資料時，除可再驗證消費者信心指數與民間消費支出的關係外，亦可考量下列研究方向：（一）研究修正經建會景氣領先指標構成項目，納入屬質性質的消費者信心指數，俾強化政府掌握短期景氣波動的能力。（二）消費者調查資料可依人口結構及經濟能力等，再細分為次團體進行分析，以進一步了解未來全國消費支出的情形，以及消費者儲蓄、投資等行為。

Consumer confidence indexes (CCI) have been widely used around the world as an indicator for forecasting near-term economic changes. However, there are no studies on the relationship between the CCI and private consumption in Taiwan. This study examines the establishment of CCIs in advanced countries, investigating their relationship with and application to macroeconomic activities, and also employs empirical analysis to determine whether Taiwan’s CCI possesses the capability to forecast near-term private consumption expenditure. The main finding of the study is that Taiwan’s CCI does not have significant predictive power for future consumption due to the short sample period of the CCI data. Taking the experience of other countries into account, this study suggests that, when sufficient statistical data is accumulated, future studies should not only retest the relationship of the CCI and private consumption, but also explore the following areas: 1. Including the CCI as a component of the leading index of Taiwan’s business indicators compiled by the CEPD, as a means of enhancing the short-term predictive power of the government’s business indicators. 2. Disaggregating consumer sentiment survey data, according to population structure and economic level, to provide a more detailed picture of future consumption expenditure, savings, and investment.