景氣對策信號之檢討與修正

The Review of Taiwan Business Monitoring Indicators

景氣對策信號之修正旨在配合台灣經濟發展結構、確實反映景氣脈動。本文首先回顧與檢討原景氣對策信號，經廣泛測試各候選數列發現：「製造業銷售」、「批發零售及餐飲業營業額指數」及「機械及電機設備進口值」3項，可用以替換過去表現不佳之構成項目。除構成項目的替換外，我們亦改採Bootstrap抽樣法估計檢查值，並參考經建計畫目標及學者專家對未來景氣之研判予以綜合評估。經由上述的修訂，景氣對策信號與經濟成長率相關係數將由修訂前0.89提升為0.93；就個別期間表現而言，無論第10次景氣循環的收縮期，或是SARS期間，修訂後之景氣對策信號均能忠實反映。本文研究結果，已併同景氣指標之修訂，於96年7月提報經建會第1298次委員會通過，並決議自8月發布7月景氣對策信號起適用。本文最後針對燈號解讀上的限制，與修正後96年7至12月實際編製結果提出建議，以供未來修正景氣對策信號時的參考。

Taiwan's business monitoring indicator system was inaugurated in 1977 and has since been reviewed and revised in about every five years to reflect economic structural change. The previous revision was done in 2001 and this paper is based on the work of the recent revision. The author first evaluated the performance of the old system during 1994 and 2006, then tested on 400 series and selected more than 20 candidate series. The results show that “Manufacturing Sales”, “Wholesale, Retail and Food Services Sales”, and “Imports of Machinery and Electrical Equipment” perform better than components of the old system. The new system was established by replacing components with weak performance in the old system with these three new candidates. At the same time, the grading scale of each component was reviewed and revised based on Boostrap approach.