油價上漲對國內物價及人民生活負擔的影響簡析

A Short Analysis of the Impact of Rising Oil Prices on Domestic Prices and its Burden on People’s Lives in Taiwan

為了解國際油價高漲的影響，本文透過產業關聯分析方法，簡要推估國際油價對國內CPI、各產品分類物價、不同階層人民生活負擔的可能影響。結果發現：CPI上漲率中以交通類漲幅最大；高所得者由於交通類支出比重相對較高，以致民眾面對的物價漲幅，大致隨其所得的提高而增加；但最低所得者對物價上漲帶來的新增支出，可能無力負荷，其基本生活恐受影響。引申的政策涵義有：浮動油價機制大致符合使用者付費原則，但政府仍應督促中油提升生產效率，並考量按物價情勢調整相關社福政策等。

To understand the impact of surging oil prices on Taiwan’s consumer prices and the resulting burden on people’s lives, this paper employs input-output analysis to gauge the possible effects on Taiwan’s domestic CPI, the prices of different categories of goods, and the burden on the lives of different segments of the population. We find that rises in transportation costs make up the biggest part of the increase in the headline CPI; that the highest income earners’ transportation costs are relatively high, and price rises faced by the populace climb in approximate correspondence to rising levels of income; but that the lowest income earners may be unable to bear the burden of new costs brought by rising prices, and will therefore suffer the greatest impact on their basic standard of living. The policy implications of these findings are that the floating oil price system largely accords with the user-pays principle, but the government still needs to press China Petroleum Corporation to enhance its production efficiency, and should consider adjusting relevant social welfare policies in accordance with the price situation.