禽流感疫情對總體經濟的可能衝擊

The possible economic effects of Avian Influenza—the implications of empirical studies

2003年12月以來，許多國家（尤其是若干亞洲地區）出現人類感染H5N1的禽流感案例，引起各國高度重視。面對禽流感可能爆發流行的威脅，各國際組織與政府均陸續著手防備，並探討該疫情對總體經濟的衝擊。然而，禽流感對總體經濟的影響究係多深，各實證量化評估依模型假設條件的互異而有不同的結論，甚至在相近的流感疫情情境下，量化之影響效果差異頗大。因此，本文不擬強調禽流感疫情對各國經濟的影響究係多深，僅根據各文獻的評估結果，闡釋該疫情影響經濟體系的可能管道，探討各量化數據背後的經濟意涵，最後歸納若干政策啟示。

Since December 2003, cases of humans infected with H5N1 avian influenza in a number of countries (especially in some parts of Asia) have attracted worldwide attention. Facing a potential pandemic threat, nations and international organizations have started planning for pandemic preparedness and assessing potential economic effects. It is, however, difficult to assess the macroeconomic impact of the disease, with quantitative assessment models producing widely differing results, even in quite similar scenarios. Based on such observation, this paper does not seek to assess the extent of potential macroeconomic effects, but rather explores possible pathways through which a pandemic might affect the economy, investigates the economic significance behind different quantitative research results, and concludes by drawing out some policy implications.