高雄市火災發生潛勢分析

A Research on Potential Analysis of the Fire Occurred at Kaohsiung City

本研究以高雄市為研究對象，利用高雄市土地使用調查二手資料與高雄市近年來火災發生地點分佈為基礎，探討不同土地使用行為或活動、實質空間結構及社會經濟統計指標與火災災害間之關連性。並藉由高雄市土地使用數值檔結合地理資訊系統（GIS ），套繪火災發生地點分佈位置，以瞭解高雄市過去 9 年來火災發生之分佈情形、密集程度與其特性，作為研究之基本資料；並與該年高雄市社會經濟現象變化作交叉分析、配合多元迴歸分析，探討社會經濟統計指標中各變項因子之顯著性；且以關聯性法則分析土地使用及實質空間結構，探討各相關因子對火災發生之關聯性，完成篩選變項之最終目的，進而瞭解都市各行政區火災造成潛在威脅，建構高雄市火災發生潛勢圖。其結果可提供未來高雄市土地規劃單位、消防單位進行各項計畫推動時之參考。

This research took Kaohsiung City as a research object, and used the second-hand data of the land utilizing investigation and distribution of the fire location occurred (in recent 9 years) at Kaohsiung City to explore different behaviors or activities in land using and discuss the correlation between substantial space structure, social economic statistic index and fire disaster. This research reported the distribution, focus and feature of fires occurred in recent 9 years by combining the value file of land using and GIS in Kaohsiung City to reveal the fire location. Taking that as a fundamental data, this research also made a cross-analysis on the variation of social economic phenomenon in Kaohsiung. A multiple regression analysis is used to explore the significance of each variable social factor. The correlated rule was used to analyze the land using and substantial space structure, explore the correlation between related factor and fire occurrence, and select variables being accomplished to realize the potential threat caused by the fire occurred in various administrative districts. A potential fire occurred location chart in Kaohsiung City was established which may be provided, as references, to the authority in charge of the land project of Kaohsiung and to the fire department for conducting various plans and programs.