後危機時期中國經濟轉型與國際參與

Chinese Economic Transitions and International Participation in the Post-Crisis Ear

後金融危機時期全球經濟與貿易復甦緩慢，中國因其龐大消費市 場及外匯存底成為眾所矚目的焦點，然而中國是否能在出口減緩下順 利由「出口轉內需」、「投資轉消費」的經濟成長模式轉型持續擴大內需、穩定就業，仍需觀察其內部五項重要議題的發展：（一）政府振 興經濟政策的初期效果以及未來風險，（二）貨幣金融手段的操作與 金融試點改革評估，（三）經濟成長趨緩的硬著陸風險，（四）人口結 構轉變與人口紅利衰減，（五）城鎮化與所得水準提升。此外，積極 參與東 亞區 域經 濟結 盟亦 是中國 在後 危機 時期 提升 國際政 經影 響力的重要課題。

This article attempts to analysis the key factors of China's transposition to the consumption-driven model to keep its high-speed economic growth after global financial crisis. Instead of export-led and investment-led growth model, five prospects for altering the consumer-led model that has targeted in China's 12th Five-years Plan are crucial: uncertain effects of economic revival policies, financial risk of monetary polices, puzzle of hard landing, decline of demographic dividend and instability of urbanization. Furthermore, continuing rapid growth will enhance China to play a more active role in global economic structure and regional integration mechanisms.