美中競合格局下的臺日關係發展策略－－如何評價美國因素與中國因素對臺日關係的影響

Developing Taiwan-Japan Relations under the Context of U.S.-China Competitions

美中關係影響亞洲戰略局勢甚鉅，對於台日關係更有關鍵性影響。台灣外交界對於如何發展台日關係存在兩個不同的視角，第一種視以日中台三角關係為主軸，認為中國是影響台日關係最重要的外部因素，另一者則以台美日三角互動出發，認為美國才是影響台日關係最關鍵的外來行為者。檢視過去五年的發展，馬政府基本上將台日關係放在日中台三角架構下處理，但在兩岸關係大幅改善下，台日關係卻未獲得相應的提升，反而還出現多次的衝突與倒退，更導致中國對台日關係下指導棋的狀況。本文認為這顯示日中台三角架構的本質問題。本文認為美中關係現正處於崛起強權挑戰既定強權的狀況，美國對此也做出重返亞洲的戰略部署，以及重新調整對中國態度等回應。在美中關係存在本質的競合關係，以及日本對外政策依然以美日同盟為主的思考下，發展與強化台美日三角可能對於發展台日關係會是更合適的策略。而釣魚台爭議的最後處理，更是證明了台美日三角對於處理台日關係，會比日中台三角架構帶給台灣更有利的戰略處境。

The dynamics of US-China relation exercises great influence of the Taiwan-Japan relations. This fact has leads to two different schools of thought in Taiwan about the strategy to advance the Taiwan-Japan relations. One school of thought is advocated to contextualize the Taiwan-Japan relation in the Taiwan-Japan-China triangle, thus emphasizing the importance of China. Another school of thought believes the dominating role is played by the United States and advocate the Taiwan-Japan-U.S. triangle as the framework to advance the Taiwan-Japan relations. Current Ma administration is operating the Taiwan's relation with Japan through the Taiwan-Japan-China triangle. But the experience of the last five years under the Ma Ying-Jeou's policy, despite the much improved cross-Strait relations, Taiwan's relation with Japan suffered severe setback has risen repeatedly. China also started to use the state of the cross-Strait relation to make demand on Taiwan's conduct with Japan, an act not seen in the past. It is argued that the dynamics of the U.S.-China resembled the relationship between a revisionist power and a status-quo power. Since the United States has responded to this dynamics through its re-balancing to Asia policy, that there exists the fundamental competition-cooperation dualism that has long been in the Washington-Beijing interaction, and that Tokyo still strongly adheres to base its foreign policy through its alliance with the United States, that we believe to base the strategy for development the Taiwan's relation with Japan under the Taiwan-Japan-U.S. triangle would be advisable. This assertion also has its semi-validation by the recent development of Taiwan's management of Diaoyu Island/Senkaku dispute with Japan.