國際化、國內就業效果與外銷貢獻高估問題

Internationalization, Domestic Employment, and Overstatement of Export Contribution

本文利用2004年至2008年共915筆臺灣資訊電子產業（information technology and electronics industry, IE產業）之廠商資料，以反覆表面無關迴歸模型，聯立推估「國際化深度（大陸及非大陸地區投資額占總資產比率）與廣度（大陸與非大陸子公司數目）影響國內產出比，並進而影響國內勞動雇用比」之遞迴方程式，再經由鏈法則與跨方程式參數檢定，評估國際化對國內勞動雇用比之衝擊效應。晚近已明顯出現「臺灣接單，海外生產」所衍生冰冷經濟成長與無感復甦之總體問題，故本文在處理國內產出比方面，分別估計「國產外銷」佔「整體外銷」100%、90%、80%及70%等四組模型。實證結果顯示，就IE產業而言：（1）國際化（尤其是廠商西進），確實會顯著降低廠商的國內勞動雇用比；（2）高估國產外銷佔整體外銷比重，會連帶導致低估國際化對國內勞動雇用比之負向衝擊程度；（3）在控制變數方面，發現要素價格比、多角化、負債比、子產業別及市場結構等因子，對國內勞動雇用比產生不同方向與程度之顯著影響效應。

This study analyzes 915 information electronics (IE) firms in Taiwan over 2004-2008 and applies the iterative seemingly unrelated regression model to estimate how both the depth (accumulated value of overseas investment to total assets) and the width (number of overseas firms) of internationalization affect the ratio of domestic output to overseas output, which, in turn, influences the ratio of domestic employment to overseas employment. We then assess the shock response of the second ratio to internationalization through the chain rule and parametric tests across equations. Given Taiwan's stagnant growth and jobless recovery in the past decade, which partially reflect the fact that most firms take orders in Taiwan while producing abroad, our analysis specifically constructs four sets of models at the 100%, 90%, 80%, and 70% levels for the ratio of locally produced exports to total exports. The empirical results show for Taiwan's IE industry that: (1) the depth and width of internationalization, in particular under the sector's relocation to China, substantially reduce domestic employment; (2) an overstatement of the ratio of locally produced exports to total exports leads to an understatement of the adverse effect of internationalization on domestic employment; (3) among the chosen control variables, the factor price, degree of diversification, debt ratio, sub-industry dummy, and market structure affect domestic employment differently in a significant way.