臺灣地區石油化學產業能源消費與二氧化碳關聯分析

Relational Analysis between Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission of Petroleum Chemical Industry in Taiwan

本文利用投入產出分析、乘數分析、及脫鉤指標分析，探討民國71年至97年，石油化學產業之產業關聯對能源消費及CO2排放量之乘數效應，得知石油化學產業的產業經濟與能源效益及CO2排放特性。最後，利用脫鉤指標分析石油化學產業能源消費結構與GDP值之相互關係。結果顯示產業關聯部分，以化學材料製造業、化學製品製造業及油氣煉製業占總關聯效果較大，代表產業對於帶動整體經濟及支持整體產業貢獻頗大。能源乘數部分，化學材料製造業和橡膠及塑膠製品製造業之能源乘數平均為22.78×10^7kcal/百萬元、11.46×10^7kcal/百萬元，佔整體產業排名前列，為典型的高耗能產業。CO2乘數部分，化學材料製造業、化學製品製造業、油氣煉製業、橡膠及塑膠製品製造業之平均值分別為52.46、22.40、20.90、36.55公噸/百萬元，約佔整體產業七分之一強，顯示石油化學產業供獻CO2排放量頗大。脫鉤指標部分，石油化學產業為高耗能且高污染之產業，近幾年脫鉤指標呈現惡化趨勢，顯示其能源使用效益並無明顯改善。綜合上述，石油化學產業整體應積極推動CO2減量措施及實行方法，建議使用再生能源及提升能源使用效率，為石油化學產業未來永續發展之參考。

This study applied input-output analysis, multiplier analysis, energy structural analysis and decoupling analysis to analyze the multiplier effect of CO2 emission in petroleum chemical industry from 1982 to 2008. The object is to study and analyze the industrial economy, energy efficiency and the emission identity of CO2 in the Petroleum chemical industry. The study is concluded by executing the decoupling analysis to analyze the relationship between the energy consumption and GDP.Based on the input-output analysis, high relative effects were confirmed in chemical material manufacturing, chemical products manufacturing and oil & gas refining industry. This indicated that these industries contributed a lot more significantly regarding economic and supporting roles for the whole industry system. The energy multiplier analysis showed that the average values of chemical material manufacturing and rubber & plastic products manufacturing were 22.78×10^7 kcal/million NT and 11.46×10^7 kcal/million NT, respectively. These were located at the front ranking of whole industries belonging to high energy consuming industries. The carbon dioxide emission in multipliers analysis showed that the average value of the chemical material manufacturing, chemical products manufacturing, oil & gas refining industry, rubber & plastic products manufacturing were 52.46 ton/million NT, 22.40 ton/million NT, 20.90 ton/million NT, and 36.55 ton/million NT, respectively. Furthermore, decoupling analysis illustrated that the petroleum chemical industry were highly energy consuming and produces high level of pollutant. This industry tends to deteriorate gradually which indicates that the energy efficiency of petroleum chemical industry is unlikely to improve. Therefore, petroleum chemical industries are required to deeply devote their effort in conduction CO2 emission-reduction policy and use renewable energy to increase efficient energy usage. Finally, the result of this research could contribute as the guidance for the sustainable development of petroleum chemical industry in their further applications.