以投入產出結構因素分析與產業關聯分析探討臺灣產業二氧化碳 排放變動趨勢

A Study of the Trend of Industrial CO2 Emission in Taiwan by Input-Output Structural Decomposition and Interindustry Interdependence Analysis

本研究將造成二氧化碳排放量變動的因素歸納有九項，包括：產業能源直接係數、能源排放係數、各能源排放替代、中間投入國產率變化、中間投入結構變化、國內最終需求成長、國內最終需求結構變動、出口成長、出口結構變化。研究結果顯示，80年至85年間二氧化碳排放增量為48,992千公噸，出口成長為最主要增量因素，其次為國內最終需求成長，能源直接係數變化、能源排放係數總量、產業中間投入國產率變化、產業中間投入結構變化、國內最終需求結構變化及出口結構變化因素， 皆呈現減量效果。85年至90年間，二氧化碳排放增量為64,251千公噸， 相較前五年有顯著增加趨勢，能源需求為帶動增量的主流，其次，排放增量的第二位為出口成長因素，而產業中間投入結構變化、最終需求結構變化以及出口結構變化皆為減量的主要因素。90年至95年間，二氧化碳排放增量為41,561千公噸，出口成長為主要增量因素，其次為產業中間投入國產率變化，而能源直接係數變化、產業中間投入結構變化及國內最終需求結構變化三項因素皆為減量主要因素。

Change of CO2 emission can be decomposed into nine factors: the industrial energy coefficient, CO2 emission factor, interfuel substitution, the rate of domestic production to intermediate input, structural change of intermediate input, the level of domestic final demand, the change of domestic final demand, the level of exports and the structural change of exports. According to the result of this study, the amount of CO2 emission increased 48,992 kilotons during 1991~1996. In addition, the level of domestic final demand and the level of exports are increment factors, the industrial energy coefficient, the CO2 emission factor, the rate of domestic production to intermediate input, the structural change of intermediate input, the change of domestic final demand and the structural change of exports caused decrement effect. From 1996 to 2001, the increment of CO2 emission compared with the pass five years period was 64,251kilotons. The main increment factor was the energy demand. The level of exports and the structural change of intermediate input and the change of domestic final demand was the primary decrement factor. The amount of CO2 emission rise up to 41,561 kilotons between 2001 and 2006. The level of exports and the rate of domestic production to intermediate input are increment factors. The industrial energy coefficient, structural change of intermediate input and the change of domestic final demand were caused by the decrement effect.