利用財務數據進行企業價值評估--以臺灣自行車業為例

Using Financial Data to Assess Investment Value--A Study of Taiwan Bicycle Industry

近年來運動休閒風氣盛行以及環境議題升溫，促使全球增加自行車的需求量。臺灣自行車產業是少數具有研發創新、國際生產分工、品牌行銷及全國化銷售通路能力的產業，值得深入研究。本文研究目的在於增進對臺灣自行車產業的認識，首先探討目前全球與臺灣自行車產業發展現況；其次以財務觀點，為國內自行車龍頭前兩大公司，進行財務健檢；最後，結合評價模型，評估合理利潤下之投資價值。本研究選取巨大機械與美利達工業近六年（2007 年至 2012 年）之財報與相關資訊進行分析。研究結果顯示，兩家公司的財務結構穩健，具有償還短期負債及利息的能力；經營與獲利能力良好，亦符合投資大師之選股標準。但是兩家公司現金流量都有資金缺口。美利達在財務結構、償債能力、內部資金需求及整體獲利之指標皆優於巨大，使美利達更具好公司特質。在投資價格方面，兩家公司目前股價皆為昂貴價，不適合買進，景氣訊號亦鼓勵投資人維持手中持股數，待加碼或減碼訊號更加強烈時，再調整持股數。

The growing sport and leisure trend， as well as the environmental issues gaining more attention， lead to growing global bicycle sales. Taiwan bicycle industry is worth of in-depth research， because it is one of the few industries which own the capabilities in research and innovation， International division of laboring， brand name marketing， and country wide distribution channels. The objective of this study is to enhance the understanding of Taiwan bicycle industry. It begins with current developments on both worldwide and Taiwan bicycle industries， followed by the financial health check on top two leading local companies from the financial point of view. Finally the investment value under reasonable profit is assessed by combining evaluation model. The financial reports along with related information of Giant BicycleTM and Merida BikesTM from 2007 to 2012 （6 years） were chosen for analysis. The results show that both companies have robust financial structures， ability to repay short-term debt and interest， good capacities in management and profitability， and meeting the Master Investor's stock selection criteria， yet both companies have shortfalls in cash flow. Merida BikesTM was superior to Giant BicycleTM in the indexes such as financial structure， debt-paying ability， internal capital requirement， and overall profitability， which makes Merida BikesTM possess better company characteristics. As for the investment cost， both stock prices are too high to buy in. The economy signal also encourage investors to maintain current stock holding， then adjust the number of shares when the signal of overweight or less code is more intense.