公司支付政策之趨勢、選擇與影響因素之研究

The Tendency%2C Choice%2C and Influential Factors of Corporate Payout Policy

本研究利用 2000 年至 2010 年台灣上市公司資料，探討台灣過去十一年公司支付政策的趨勢。我們首先發現台灣上市公司在支付政策上以發放現金股利為主，實施股票購回僅占少數。在 2008 年發生金融海嘯時，現金股利與股票購回間出現短暫替代關係，其餘期間兩者不存在顯著關係。其次，本研究利用股利預測誤差模型以驗證現金股利與股票購回之間是否存在替代關係。實證結果發現，股票購回殖利率與股利預測誤差間呈現顯著正相關。此意謂:兩者間呈現非替代關係。最後，我們使用多項式羅吉斯模型檢驗影響支付政策選擇的因素，實證發現：當公司盈餘波動度愈高、公司價值愈被低估、負債比率愈高，公司愈傾向於實施股票購回；而當非營業利益愈高或機構投資人持股比例愈高時，公司愈傾向於發放現金股利；而規模愈大的公司，則是愈傾向於同時選擇發放股利及股票購回的方式。

This paper mainly explores a tendency on payout policies for firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange during the period 2000-2010. First， we observe that firms tend to distribute earnings to their shareholders in the form of cash dividends rather than stock repurchases. Except for the period of financial crisis （in 2008）， there is no substitution relationship between cash dividends and stock repurchases. Second， we use dividend forecast error model to examine whether share repurchases has been used as a substitute for cash dividends. Our results support a positive relationship between dividend forecast errors and share repurchase yield， indicating that there is no substitution effect between the two payment methods. Finally， we use multinomial logit model to explore the factors affecting the choice between cash dividends and stock repurchases. We find that firms with higher earnings volatility， undervaluation and debt ratio are more likely to adopt shock repurchases. In addition， firms having more non-operating profit and higher institutional ownership are more likely to adopt cash dividends. Furthermore， firms with larger firm size are more likely to adopt both dividends and shock repurchases.