兩岸互動研究：雙層賽局中國內因素之影響

Study on Interaction Across Strait: Influences from Domestic Factors in Two-Level Game

兩岸關係分析或研究不僅只是台海雙方公權力或代理機構的直接競局或交涉，並且也都各自受到國內因素的重要影響與牽制。問題是雙層賽局理論並未深入挖掘對談判者所產生影響力的內部因素，這是撰寫本文的動機。我們發現，對於中國大陸而言，所謂的對內賽局指涉中共黨綱、傳統思維、內部權力安排、國家利益、安全觀、對外政策、經濟發展需要、民族主義等內部因素。和多數民主國家一樣，臺灣則受到制度建置與規範、領導人的政策宣示、政治結構變遷、反對勢力制衡、派系分裂與流派之爭、社會結構影響、選民與民意趨向、政治觀感與印象、外部事件影響的影響極深。本文擬建立「兩岸特色」的內部因素詮釋模型及其他相關模型以觀察與解釋過去、現在與未來的兩岸關係或國內情勢。在這種情況之下，海峽兩岸的政策必須把國內因素視為支配性因素，而不只是參考因素而已。

Analysis or study on relations across strait implies negotiations processed and initiated not only by public powers (governments) of two sides of strait， but also by their “agencies”. The problem is that two-level game theory did not explore domestic factors which exert restricted influences on negotiations. We found that restricted domestic factors in China can be described as Chinese Communist “Party Programme”， traditional thinking， internal power arrangement (or struggle)， national interests， new concept of national security， logic of foreign policy， economic development， nationalism manipulating and internal situation， whereas in Taiwan， these can be understood， like in most of democratic countries， and seen as organizational system and criterion， policy declaration of leaders， balance of opposition parties， factions splitting， social structure， public opinion trend， political images and external evens. This article aims to establish a model colored with “Across Taiwan Strait characteristics” to observe and explain the past， contemporary and future relations across strait， impacted by those domestic factors. In such case， policies from two sides of strait must consider internal factors as dominant factors， not just a reference.