兩岸關係新局之政治經濟分析

New Frontier of Cross-Strait Political Economy under Xi-Li Administration

This paper argues that new effort and wisdom are needed to build new frontier of cross-strait relationship. Three issues warrant special attention in the present bilateral relation: Recently Taiwan and Mainland China have signed the cross-strait trade in services agreement as specified in the agenda of ECFA. However, there is still much noise inside Taiwan about this agreement. Before this, Taiwan signed a fishery agreement with Japan in the high tension period of territory disputes over the Diaoyutai Islands. The later agreement won some applause for President Ma yet did cause a little trouble across the Strait. The last was the failure of golden intersection of two economic indicators. The first quarter GDP growth of Taiwan was only 1.54%. The figure was not only below the much-anticipated 4%, but was also far short of the employment rate of 4.18%, which it was intended to bring down. These three unrelated yet highly noticeable issues have shown us some clues on cross-Strait economic tie in post-ECFA age. It seems that Taiwan wants urgently closer economic tie with China to boost its weak growth, yet it still wants to maintain room of maneuvering in domestic as well as international politics. How then could China, under new leadership, give favors to Taiwan without asking some in return? 本文探討習李新政下兩岸關係的開發與前瞻分析，並說明雙方因在互信互利基礎下，開拓更有利的合作機會。