自然資源與國內衝突：權力轉移理論的應用

Natural Resources and Civil Conflict: An Application of Power Transition Theory

權力轉移理論（power transition theory）作為長期解釋國際衝突的主要國際關係理論，卻較少適用於國家內部衝突方面。本文的目的在以權力轉移理論的假設之下，主張政府因為自然資源租金的負面效應，導致人民的不滿，以及叛亂團體藉由自然資源的獲得或破壞政府獲取資源租金，增加他們的實力，亦增加他們挑戰政府的可能性。本文以計量經濟學（econometrics）作為主要的研究方法，資料為「時間序列與橫斷面」資料（time-series and cross-sectional data,TSCS），故以「廣義估計方程式」（generalized estimation equation, GEE）作為本文實證的模型。

Previous studies failed to link civil conflict to international relations theories,even with concepts borrowed from IR theories. I try to connect powertransition theory (PTT) to civil conflict, especially in resource-rich countries. Iargue that via the main assumptions from PTT, natural resources perfectlyaccount for, first, how resource curse produces people’s grievances, and second,how power parity is achieved. Resulting from those assumptions, people facehigh risk of civil conflict in such a circumstance in resource-abundant countries.I test time-series and cross-sectional data (TSCS) from 1960–2013 by a generalizedestimation equation model (GEE), and find that except for diamond production,natural resources increase the likelihood of civil conflict.