Zipf’s Law and City Size Distribution in China

中國城市人口分布與Zipf 法則

中國自1978 年實施經濟改革後，經濟便開始快速成長，然而經濟改革不只為中國經濟帶來快速的發展，亦帶來了都市化現象。由於經濟改革造成快速的都市化，因此中國的都市規模分配之演進值得我們深入探討。本研究將透過中國1984 年至2008 年的都市人口探討其都市規模分配的變化。研究結果顯示中國都市的規模分配較Zipf 法則下更為平均。本研究亦發現大都市的都市規模分配較小都市的都市規模分配更為平均，而造成此現象的主要因素為政府支出及產業結構的改變。本研究亦發現，隨著經濟的發展及較低的運輸成本，促使人口變得較為集中。

China’s experience with high economic growth has undergone dramaticchange following the reforms initiated in 1978, which not only introduced economicincentives, but also encouraged urbanization. Due to the rapid urbanizationthat has taken place, it is particularly worth investigating the size distributionof Chinese cities. This study is thus an attempt to examine the size distributionof China’s cities over the 1984–2008 period. The results indicate thatthe size distribution of Chinese cities is more equal than would be predicted byZipf’s law. We also find that the size distribution of cities is more even for largercities than for smaller ones. According to our results, a possible explanation forthe more even distribution of large cities relative to the smaller ones is relatedto China’s government expenditures and industrial structure. Finally, we findthat economic growth promotes population concentration, and that lower transportationcosts will promote population concentration.