經濟成長與民主政治－－臺灣的實證經驗

Economic Growth and Democracy: Some Empirical Evidence in Taiwan

本文利用VECM 模型，探討臺灣1966–2009 年經濟成長與民主化程度間之Granger 因果關係，結果發現：所得、貿易、人力資本與實體資本等經濟面變數並不會Granger 影響政治民主化。臺灣經驗證實了晚近Acemoglu et al.（2002；2003；2008）等新制度經濟學的看法，亦即影響政治體制的基本因素在於國家地理環境所塑造之民族性與傳統文化，而所得與全球化等經濟因素尚居於次要地位。此外，政治體制對所得變化之影響力亦不顯著。計量結果指出：真正影響經濟發展的因素還是人力資本的累積，不論是民主體制抑或是威權領導，只要政府採取正確的教育與經濟政策，即可有效推動經濟成長，此一結論與Lipset（1959）強調人力資本的主張一致。

This article applies the VECM model to investigate the causal relationshipbetween economic growth and democracy during 1966–2009 in Taiwan. Theresults obtained show that economic factors, such as income, trade, humancapital and physical capital, do not Granger cause political democratization.On the other hand, democratization does not Granger cause growth, either. Thisevidence supports the propositions of the neo-institutional economics, such asthose of Acemoglu et al. (2002, 2003, 2008), that is, it is the culture or ethnicityshaped by the geography rather than economic factors that can significantlyinfluence the form of government. On the other hand, the form of governmentalso cannot influence economic growth. Among the factors examined in thisstudy, human capital accumulation is the key factor that can stimulate economicgrowth, implying that better education and growth-enhancing economicpolicy can effectively promote economic development despite the form of government.Our finding is consistent with Lipset’s (1959) view that human capitalplays a fundamental role in economic growth.