成功期望與興趣價值對數學成就的動態影響：動態結構方程模型分析

Dynamic Effect of Success Expectation and Interest Value on Mathematic Achievement: Dynamic Structural Equation Model Analysis

本研究以期望價值理論為架構，透過動態結構方程模型分析，瞭解成功期望與興趣價值對數學成就的動態影響。本研究透過經驗採樣方法蒐集國小46位高年級學生，在成功期望與興趣價值兩個變項的密集性追蹤資料，總共100波次，並在課程結束後施測標準化數學成就測驗。經由分析發現，在個體內層次成功期望與興趣價值存在一階自我迴歸，且成功期望與興趣價值也存在一階向量自迴歸，而在個體間層次成功期望正向影響數學成就，興趣價值負向影響數學成就，但是興趣價值對成功期望一階向量自迴歸的隨機變異正向影響數學成就。依據研究結果提出建議，供實務應用及未來研究參考。

This research is based on expectancy-value theory. Through an analysis using dynamic structural equation model, we clarified the dynamic effect of success expectation and interest value on mathematic achievement. We employed empirical sampling to collect intensive longitudinal data from 46 elementary school students. A standardized mathematic achievement test was administered after the course. The analysis revealed an autocorrelation and a cross-lagged effect between success expectation and interest value at the within-person level. At the between-person level, success expectation positively affected mathematic achievement, whereas interest value negatively affected mathematic achievement. However, the random slope related to the cross-lag effect of success expectation positively affected mathematic achievement. On the basis of the study results, suggestions were provided for practical application and future research.