台灣房市漣漪效果：台北都會區是否仍為資訊領先者？

The Ripple Effect in the Taiwan Housing Market: Is the Taipei Metropolitan Area Still an Information Leader?

本文以台灣房市2001 Q1到2023 Q4季資料，透過靜態係數、狀態轉換與動態模型，檢驗台北市、新北市與台灣總體房價，是否存在領先落後關係，分析台灣房市，是否存在漣漪效果（ripple effect）。靜態係數模型結果顯示，樣本期間內，台灣房市存在漣漪效果。狀態轉換模型結果顯示，在台灣房市繁榮期，台北都會區會從資訊傳遞者轉為接受者。動態模型結果顯示，台北市雖為台灣房市資訊領先者，然而，自2013年後，影響力下降，此項結果不符合台灣房市景氣循環。本文推斷台灣房市存在漣漪效果，且台北都會區為資訊領先者，但在地區發展差距過大下，漣漪效果開始減弱。

This paper uses data of the Taiwan housing market, from Q1 2001 to Q4 2023. Using static coefficient, state transition, and dynamic models, we examine whether there is a ripple effect in the Taiwan housing market and whether the Taipei metropolitan area acts as an information transmitter. The results of the static coefficient model shows that there is a ripple effect in the Taiwan housing market during the entire sample period. The result of the state transition model shows that during the prosperity phase of Taiwan’s housing market, the Taipei metropolitan area transitions from being an information transmitter to a receiver. The result of dynamic model shows that although Taipei City is an information leader in the Taiwan housing market, its influence has declined since 2013—a finding that doesn’t align with the overall housing market cycle in Taiwan. We infer that there is a ripple effect in the Taiwan housing market, and the Taipei metropolitan area is an information leader. However, as regional development gaps widen, ripple effects weaken.