都會區內居住遷移之重力模型研究──以台北都會區為例

Gravity Model for Intra-metropolitan Mobility–A Case Study of Taipei Metropolitan Areas

以往研究聚焦於宏觀面之區域遷移或微觀面的居住遷移，然忽略城市內之遷移與地點選擇的動態。本研究採用重力模型為框架，探討都會區內居住遷移之因素。以2009年至2021年間台北都會區30個行政區的縱橫資料為基礎，實證結果發現。1.人口、距離阻抗、房價與住宅供給構成各行政區吸引力的因素。2.遷移者傾向搬遷至相較原居住區具更大吸引力的目的地。3.人口聚集與住宅價格為影響住宅遷移的關鍵因素，而住宅供給影響較弱。這些發現為地方政府在制定住宅政策與重新劃定開發區時預測遷移趨勢提供參考。同時，也為土地開發商設計有效的行銷策略提供指引。

Previous research has largely focused on macro-level regional migration or micro-level residential mobility, neglecting the meso-level dynamics of mobility and destination choices within urban districts. To fill the research gap, this study examines the determinants of intra-metropolitan residential mobility within the framework of a gravity model. The empirical results yield several noteworthy findings by using the panel data from 30 districts within the Taipei metropolitan areas（TMA）spanning from 2009 to 2021. Firstly, the determinants of intra-metropolitan residential mobility, such as population, distance impedance, housing prices, and housing supply contribute to the attractiveness of each district. Secondly, migrants exhibit a tendency to relocate to destinations with a larger mass（attractiveness）relative to their original residential area. Thirdly, population agglomeration and housing prices of districts emerge as pivotal factors influencing residential mobility, whereas the impact of housing supply appears comparatively subdued. These findings provide valuable insights for local administrations in formulating housing policies and calculating mobility trends when rezoning new development areas. Additionally, it offers guidance to land developers in crafting effective marketing strategies to navigate competitive market dynamics.