政黨輪替與空屋率之關係探討──臺灣縣市級資料分析

Political Turnover and Vacancy Rates: Evidence from County-Level Data in Taiwan

本研究主要討論臺灣各縣市政黨輪替對空屋率之影響。我們使用2009年至2021年的資料，並使用動態追蹤模型進行估計探討此一研究議題。我們的實證結果發現，若考量臺灣整體樣本，政黨輪替發生後會導致空屋率顯著的下降，但此結果僅存在政黨輪替發生後的第一年。而次樣本的分析結果，我們發現在北部的樣本中，政黨輪替則對空屋率沒有顯著的效果；但在非北部的樣本中，政黨輪替的發生使空屋率顯著的下降，此結果也僅存在發生政黨輪替後的第一年，此發現為一短期效果。我們亦驗證，本文主要發現與相關的不動產政策並無太大關連。

This paper investigates the impact of political turnover, as indicated by county mayor election results, on the vacancy rate in Taiwan. Using county-level data from 2009 to 2021, the dynamic panel model estimation reveals a significant decline in the vacancy rate only during the first year following political turnover, with no notable effects in the second and third years. Additionally, these findings are primarily observed in non-northern counties. To ensure robustness, we account for housing policy influences by including policy proxy variables in the analysis, confirming that the main results remain consistent.