艾森豪政府對匈牙利革命之認知與對策

Eisenhower and Hungarian Revolution of 1956: Leading Bureaucrats’Perception and Response

本研究以官僚行為模型為研究途徑，探究1956年匈牙利革命期間艾森豪政府在外交決策上的認知與對策。傳統外交史學派認為，艾森豪總統為避免與蘇聯爆發戰爭為首要目標，對東歐解放運動僅採取有限支持。本文指出僅以戰略排序不足以解釋政策落差，需進一步釐清不同決策官僚之間的立場與利益衝突。透過國家安全會議決策過程的分析，本研究發現艾森豪總統與國務卿杜勒斯支持以經貿手段削弱蘇聯影響力，而財政部長漢弗萊與國防部長威爾遜基於國內政治考量反對，導致「經濟推回」策略發展轉向「政治推回」。面對官僚分歧，艾森豪總統展現出謹慎務實的領導風格，調整政策重心至心理戰與資訊滲透，並維持政府內部表面上的共識。本文亦指出，儘管官僚行為模型強調「位置決定立場」，總統仍在最終決策中扮演關鍵角色。艾森豪透過戰略排序與策略性延後，引導決策走向，避免陷入「團體迷思」。匈牙利革命期間，美國選擇外交操作，而非軍事介入，充分體現冷戰戰略下的現實考量。最後，本研究補充外交史學派對艾森豪「解放政策」的理解，揭示內部官僚矛盾對政策執行的影響，並重新評估艾森豪領導風格，指出其以低調而策略性的手法，維持美國在冷戰格局中的有限影響力。

This article employs the bureaucratic behavior model to examine the Eisenhower administration’s perceptions and responses during the 1956 Hungarian Revolution. This article argues that strategic prioritization alone is insufficient to explain the gap between policy goals and implementation; it is also necessary to analyze bureaucratic conflicts among different governmental bureaucrats. By analyzing the decision-making process of the National Security Council, this study has found the policy change from the“economic rollback”to the“political rollback.”President Eisenhower demonstrated a pragmatic leadership style by shifting the policy focus toward psychological warfare and information infiltration while maintaining consensus within the administration. It is found that although the bureaucratic behavior model emphasizes the maxim“where you stand depends on where you sit,”presidential leadership played a decisive role in final decision-making. Eisenhower guided the decision process through strategic sequencing and tactical delay, effectively avoiding groupthink. During the Hungarian Revolution, the U.S. used diplomatic maneuvers rather than direct military intervention, reflecting the pragmatic balance in the Cold War context.